PS3 Supply Exceeds Demand

I saw this firsthand at Best Buy in Connecticut while I was there. Two days after Christmas, they had perhaps 2 dozen PS3s stacked up against the wall behind the customer service desk. I asked the clerk if those were the real deal or just empty promotional boxes; she replied that they were legit, and had been sitting there for a while.
I then asked about their Wiis; those were still selling out immediately. Laura and I have been trying to get one since they launched, and had no success (granted we’re not fanatic about it; we just ask every time we happen to be in a store).
I think this is a very bad portent for Sony. A lot of people have been talking about how the PS3 has become a make-or-break product for Sony; gaming is now a large portion of Sony’s overall revenues, and the Blu-Ray player was an important strategic move for the movie division. The fact that the PS3 has gotten such a “meh” response in comparision to the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the XBox 360) I think is very telling.

Still, there’s Japan to consider (they’re a major Sony stronghold), and of course the units may start selling faster once a major software title comes out (Final Fantasy is the poster boy for that). On the other hand, Sony is already losing money on the units, and so if they’re forced to cut prices to compete with the less-expensive Wii and Xbox, then they’ll be in murky waters, even if they can get the production prices down.

So, time to short Sony stock?

I definitely think so. Unfortunately the amount of money I’d be willing to put on a bet like that is so small that I don’t think it’s worth the effort/fees… so I’ll keep my investment virtual for now ($47.69/share on January 12 2007).