Play-By-Play: Business Analysis Update

May 18, 2010 by Craig

I just got some responses to my market questions from my domain expert.

I’m debating whether to post the raw numbers here. This sort of research is generally considered an important competitive advantage, and thus should be private. On the other hand… I didn’t really do much (besides ask a baker), and so anyone who wants to compete should be able to go out and find similar results. Furthermore: my competitive advantage will be on the implementation side, not the market analysis side.

Still, it’s not terribly harmful to withhold publishing these numbers to the general Internet. The only thing I really lose is the credibility boost from showing my analysis process.

So, for now, I’ll keep the numbers to myself… but if you’d like to see them and you can convince me that you’re not going to pull the rug out from under me, give me a shout and I’ll share the inside scoop with you.

I will say this though: the numbers look far better than I was originally expecting. Even at the conservative end of my ranges, the expected value-to-customer (and thus sales price) is about 5 times what I had guessed.

That makes me feel a lot better about taking on this project. It should be well worth the effort I’ll put in.


  1. paranoid much? i’m going to call a baker right now and publish the numbers on my blog 😛

    but seriously, here’s two things to consider:

    1. ideas are a dime a dozen. execution is what counts.

    2. when was the last time you built a business based on somebody else’s idea you read on their blog? everybody wants to build their own great idea; nobody cares about building yours.

    Comment by Ted — May 18, 2010 @ 2:30 pm

  2. You’re just trying to goad me into spilling the beans. 🙂

    Comment by Craig — May 18, 2010 @ 9:11 pm

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