While in Costa Rica, I had a brief discussion (with a poker website employee) about the likelihood that a computer will eventually be able to beat any human player (at which point it’s pretty much useless to play poker on websites; you can be assured that everyone there will be an unbeatable computer player). That came to mind when I read this:

100 trillion brain cells and most of us can’t reliably multiply a pair of two digit numbers. If computers had invented humans as part of a BI program (biological intelligence), humans would have been tossed aside as barely having achieved perfect game play at Tic-Tac-Toe. What use is 100 trillion brain cells that can’t reliably compute a 15% tip after a heavy lunch? Many computers would like to know.

From Poker Program Battles Humans In Vegas on SlashDot.

I got the Half-Life 2 Orange Box this week. I haven’t played it much (I don’t have much time for gaming these days) but I did beat Portal in a day. I’ve also played a bit of Team Fortress 2, and it’s a pretty good visual upgrade to Classic (but still the same game). I’m saving Episode 2 until Laura gets back into town, as she enjoys watching me play. I was slightly annoyed at having to re-buy Half-Life 2 and Episode 1 over again, but I’ve forgiven Valve as I’ve come to understand that they were mostly pressured into it by the brick-and-mortar retailers. Valve did the right thing by allowing (and in fact promoting) the transfer of extra licenses/activation keys to other people. By the way, if you’d like my keys for HL2 and Ep1, let me know.

If the Gravity Gun was a big step forward in gameplay evolution, then the Portal Gun is a flying leap. (The fact that they’re both born from the same series should tell you something). It’s definitely the most flexible and enjoyable game weapon I’ve seen yet. It’s a teleporter, lock pick, jet pack, grappling hook, cloaking device, and grenade launcher all rolled into one. The best part is that it’s not overbalanced at any of those things, so you have to be clever to get the most out of it.

The big problem is that it’s way to easy to be too clever, and so the map designers had to design in heavy restrictions to keep it from becoming too unbalanced. Thus, you can only use the Portal Gun where they allow you to use it, via the mechanism of walls that don’t allow portals. At times the restrictions are stifling, but it’s completely forgivable once you consider:

• The game is designed and marketed as a puzzle game, not a more freeform adventure.
• They worked the restrictions into the storyline very well: the protagonist is supposed to be advancing through a testing facility, not running around free.
• It’s clear that the entire Portal project was a proof-of-concept for future Half-Life games. It’s going to get better from here. I pity the level designers though.

Also: I’ve often said that Fallout 2 has the best intro movie of any computer game; I think Portal gets the prize for best end game movie (though it loses some of the effect if you haven’t played it all the way through).

PS3 Supply Exceeds Demand

I saw this firsthand at Best Buy in Connecticut while I was there. Two days after Christmas, they had perhaps 2 dozen PS3s stacked up against the wall behind the customer service desk. I asked the clerk if those were the real deal or just empty promotional boxes; she replied that they were legit, and had been sitting there for a while.
I then asked about their Wiis; those were still selling out immediately. Laura and I have been trying to get one since they launched, and had no success (granted we’re not fanatic about it; we just ask every time we happen to be in a store).
I think this is a very bad portent for Sony. A lot of people have been talking about how the PS3 has become a make-or-break product for Sony; gaming is now a large portion of Sony’s overall revenues, and the Blu-Ray player was an important strategic move for the movie division. The fact that the PS3 has gotten such a “meh” response in comparision to the Wii (and to a lesser extent, the XBox 360) I think is very telling.

Still, there’s Japan to consider (they’re a major Sony stronghold), and of course the units may start selling faster once a major software title comes out (Final Fantasy is the poster boy for that). On the other hand, Sony is already losing money on the units, and so if they’re forced to cut prices to compete with the less-expensive Wii and Xbox, then they’ll be in murky waters, even if they can get the production prices down.

So, time to short Sony stock?

I definitely think so. Unfortunately the amount of money I’d be willing to put on a bet like that is so small that I don’t think it’s worth the effort/fees… so I’ll keep my investment virtual for now ($47.69/share on January 12 2007).